A Record EC Land Bid Under Tighter Rules: What Canberra Drive Tells Buyers

In May, the Government tightened the rules for new executive condominiums. The minister in charge said openly what he hoped would follow. The first land tender under those rules has now closed, and it went the other way.

As EdgeProp reported, the 99-year leasehold Canberra Drive site in Sembawang drew 13 bids when its tender closed on Oct 1. Analysts had expected three to five. It was the strongest turnout for an EC land tender in eight years, the most since the Sumang Walk site in Punggol drew a record 17 offers. The top bid, $163.9 million or about $825 psf per plot ratio (ppr), set a new record for EC land. The previous high was $794 psf ppr, bid by Sim Lian Group for a Woodlands Drive 17 site in a tender that closed on Jan 13.

EdgeProp names the top bidder as a consortium of Santarli Realty, Heeton Holdings, Kay Lim Holdings and Sunray Group Holdings. The Straits Times describes it as a consortium led by Santarli Realty, Heeton Holdings and Kay Lim. CNA, citing HDB’s provisional results, named the joint bidders as SNC3 Realty, HS Invesco and Kay Lim Realty. The result is provisional, and the site has not yet been awarded.

The site measures 124,167 sq ft and can yield about 185 homes, which makes it a small EC project. It is the sixth EC site released in the Canberra area, after projects such as The Brownstone, The Visionaire, Parc Canberra and Provence Residence, plus a Sembawang Road site awarded in 2025.

I have spent 17 years helping families make decisions they will live with for a decade or more. For many of them, an EC is the step between a HDB flat and private property. So this tender is worth reading carefully, because it says something about the next few EC launches as well as this one.

What were the new EC rules meant to do?

The measures announced on May 8 changed three things for buyers of new ECs.

First, the minimum occupation period (MOP) doubled from five years to 10. Second, the Deferred Payment Scheme was removed. Third, first-timers got much more priority: their share of units rises from 70 per cent to 90 per cent, and the priority period runs for two years instead of one month. As SRI’s Mohan Sandrasegeran put it, second-timer households “would generally account for only 10% of the initial allocation during this period”. Then in August, the monthly household income ceiling for EC buyers was raised to $18,000 from $16,000.

The intent was stated plainly. CNA reported that National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat said he had hoped the measures would “result in developers reducing their bids and the prices for their ECs”.

The logic made sense. A longer MOP and earlier mortgage payments should shrink demand at the margin. A buyer pool weighted to first-timers is likely to be more price-sensitive. Developers, the reasoning went, would bid less for land, and launch prices would follow.

Why did developers bid more, not less?

The honest answer is that nobody knows for certain, and the analysts quoted offered several reasons.

PropNex’s head of research and content, Wong Siew Ying, said the number of bids and the top price “far exceeded our expectations”. Her theory: because everyone expected cautious bidding, more developers took part on the chance that a moderate bid might win. When the tender launched, PropNex had expected a top bid of around $620 to $660 psf ppr. The top bid came in well above that.

Others pointed to the site itself. Realion’s Justin Quek called it the most attractive of the recent Sembawang tenders because it is the closest to the MRT station. He added that with a 10-year MOP, location may have become a decisive factor for buyers. Mohan Sandrasegeran said the smaller scale may have given developers more confidence in judging how the new rules would play out. Huttons’ Mark Yip noted that some developers may have seen the higher income ceiling as widening the pool of eligible buyers.

Yet the bids did not all agree. The lowest offer was $361 psf ppr, a spread of 128.5 per cent between highest and lowest. ERA’s Eugene Lim said that gap “is revealing of vastly differing outlooks for future EC reception”. In his view, optimistic bidders saw upside in a bigger pool of first-timers. More conservative ones may have priced in greater price sensitivity, “especially without the cushion of the Deferred Payment Scheme”.

The top three bids were packed tightly together. The bottom of the field was not. That gap is the market telling you it has not made up its mind.

The top three bids, at $825, $803 and $798 psf ppr, were clustered closely. So several serious developers reached a similar view of this particular site. But one tender for 185 homes, near an MRT station, is a narrow base for a broad conclusion.

What does $825 psf ppr mean for the launch price?

Land is only one input, but it sets a floor under what a developer needs to charge. Based on the top bid, PropNex’s Wong projects that the average selling price of the eventual project may be around $1,900 psf, if the site is awarded to the top bidders.

For context, EdgeProp recalled that Piermont Grand, built on the Sumang Walk site, launched in July 2019 at an average of about $1,080 psf. It was the first EC to launch above $1,000 psf. The Straits Times noted that the new bid is about 19.2 per cent above the $692 psf ppr paid for the last EC site sold in Sembawang, at Sembawang Road, in 2025.

I would treat the $1,900 psf figure the way I treat any projection: as a way to frame your budget, not a price you can count on. It is also my own agency’s research team’s estimate, so take it as one informed view. What it does tell a family is this. If you were hoping the new rules would bring EC prices down, the first tender does not support that hope, at least not yet.

How should a family size up an EC now?

This is the part that matters most for buyers. The rules changed what an EC is as a commitment, whatever developers pay for land.

Start with the 10-year MOP. A new EC is now a decade-long home before you can sell it on the open market. If your children will move schools, if parents may move in, or if a job could take you overseas, map those years honestly before you commit. A five-year plan does not fit a 10-year lock-in.

Next, the Deferred Payment Scheme is gone. The Straits Times noted analysts’ view that earlier mortgage repayments could dampen demand. In plain terms, mortgage repayments start earlier, so your cash flow during construction needs to stand on its own.

Then the good news for first-timers. With 90 per cent of units set aside for first-timers in the first two years, and the income ceiling now $18,000, more couples qualify, and first-timers get a better chance of securing a unit. Realion’s Quek expects keen interest when this project launches, partly because more couples are now eligible.

When I compare an EC with a HDB flat or a private condo for a family, I ask three questions:

• Can you stay 10 years? If not, the EC’s new MOP works against you.
• Can you carry the loan from the start, without the Deferred Payment Scheme?
• Would you still be happy with the price if values stayed flat over your decade there?

With a 10-year MOP, you are not buying an EC to flip. You are choosing where your family lives through a whole stage of life.

What should buyers watch next?

The next signal comes on Dec 17, when the tender for an EC site at Admiralty Walk closes. That site can yield about 450 units and is farther from an MRT station. Wong said it will “give a second reading” on how developers value EC land under the new measures. A bigger site, farther from the MRT, will test whether Canberra Drive was a pattern or a one-off.

ERA’s Eugene Lim urged caution: “The strong turnout this time does not mean caution has been thrown to the wind for future EC tenders.” He pointed to the supply already coming in the North. Wynwood Grand and the upcoming projects at Sembawang Road, Woodlands Drive 17, Miltonia Close and Canberra Drive itself could add about 1,860 units to the EC pipeline. He also flagged rising interest rates and a softer domestic job market as reasons developers may hold back at future tenders.

So my advice to EC buyers is the same before and after this record. Do not try to time the policy. Decide whether a decade in an EC, paid on a normal schedule, suits your family. If it does, the new first-timer priority is a real advantage. If it does not, a record land bid is no reason to stretch.

If you are weighing an EC against a resale flat or a condo and want a second view on how the 10-year horizon fits your family’s plans, I am always glad to talk it through.